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Elliot Abrams

Arizona: Too Wet; Northeast: Getting Drier
Arizona: Too Wet; Northeast: Getting Drier
September 17, 2014; 8:09 AM

In other words, while late summers in Phoenix have gotten wetter during the last few years, Boston has become drier. Is there anything more momentous or general that we can say about this?
Several Dry Days From Great Lakes to Northeast
Several Dry Days From Great Lakes to Northeast
September 16, 2014; 7:01 AM

This enhanced infrared satellite picture shows the cold front in the Northeast and the moisture wrapping around Odille on the southwest part of the map.
Northeast: Damp Early Tomorrow; Otherwise, Dry This Week
Northeast: Damp Early Tomorrow; Otherwise, Dry This Week
September 15, 2014; 7:38 AM

Across the Central and Northern states, thunderstorms are less common at this time of year than in late spring and summer. One area that has had more thunderstorms than usual recently is across the Desert Southwest.
Great Lakes and Northeast to Remain Cool
Great Lakes and Northeast to Remain Cool
September 12, 2014; 8:07 AM

Last week, I mentioned that longer range computer models were suggesting a major warmup by next weekend. More recent runs have backed off on the that idea. However, there is extreme uncertainty beyond the next 7-10 days. This can be seen by looking at the following map.
Autumn Preview for the Great Lakes and Northeast
Autumn Preview for the Great Lakes and Northeast
September 11, 2014; 10:38 AM

n the forecast office, we often track cold fronts with pressure maps like these. The examples are from 4AM and 10 AM today. You can see that the northern part of the front is moving more quickly than the southern end. The arrival of the front signals the start of the cooling trend that is spreading east.
DC to Boston: Warmer Tomorrow, Then Cooler Into Next Week
DC to Boston: Warmer Tomorrow, Then Cooler Into Next Week
September 10, 2014; 7:58 AM

The upper air flow over the East is from the west-southwest now, and some of the moisture associated with the cold front can be traced back to tropical storm activity off the Mexican west coast last week. The same moist air mass set the stage for recent flash floods in Arizona. By early next week, the upper-air flow will be coming to the Northeast region from well up in western Canada, as seen on this forecast map forecast map for next Tuesday:
Northeast: Warmer Tomorrow and Thursday, Then Cooler
Northeast: Warmer Tomorrow and Thursday, Then Cooler
September 09, 2014; 7:53 AM

As chilly air pours into the northern Plains and backs into the Rockies, snow can break out at higher elevations. Gillette, in northeastern Wyoming at an elevation of just over 4,000 feet, could have a close shave with snow on Thursday. This map shows the setup.
Dampness Spreads Through Middle Atlantic States
Dampness Spreads Through Middle Atlantic States
September 08, 2014; 7:19 AM

The main U.S. computer model shows very cool air coming into the Northeast this coming weekend. However, the same model shows a complete reversal by the following weekend.
I-95 Corridor: Hot and Humid Then Cool and Comfortable
I-95 Corridor: Hot and Humid Then Cool and Comfortable
September 05, 2014; 7:35 AM

Meanwhile, it is warm and humid in the Northeast corridor today but should be much more comfortable on Sunday. This map shows the pressure and temperature setup that existed at 7 a.m. ET. The cold front is associated with the rapid change of shape/direction in the pressure contours over the upper-left part of the map.
Northeast: Heat to Retreat Later This Weekend
Northeast: Heat to Retreat Later This Weekend
September 04, 2014; 7:40 AM

Study in contrast: radars from Albany NY and Chicago IL at 8AM ET/78AM CT. The look may be reversed on Saturday. Shown is the Chicago radar.

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