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Elliot Abrams

Northeast: Warmer Early Next Week
Northeast: Warmer Early Next Week
August 22, 2014; 7:38 AM

A storm in the tropical Atlantic is being observed for possible strengthening. This map shows the variety of models purporting to show where the center will go. Most solutions suggest it stays well offshore, but you will notice a few outliers suggesting more threat.
Weekend Forecast for Great Lakes and Northeast
Weekend Forecast for Great Lakes and Northeast
August 21, 2014; 7:56 AM

For example, the purple line in the east marks the boundary between air coming in from the ocean and a southwesterly current of warmer air. That boundary was the scene of showers and thunderstorms when it was in the middle of Pennsylvania yesterday, and was associated with rain that moved through the Hudson Valley early this morning.
Showers and Thunderstorms Mark Thermal Boundary
Showers and Thunderstorms Mark Thermal Boundary
August 20, 2014; 9:38 AM

Looking ahead to late next week, some of the computer models suggest a hurricane could affect areas between the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic east of the Bahamas. We are entering the prime part of the Atlantic hurricane season, but at this point there is only one model I am prepared to accept:
Hot Air Next Week?
Hot Air Next Week?
August 19, 2014; 9:13 AM

The following map shows the individual members of the forecast for the 5,880-meter height line at 500mb. If the 500 mb height is that high, it usually means the weather at the ground in the Northeast is hot. However...
Showers, Thunderstorms Spread From Midwest to Mid-Atlantic
Showers, Thunderstorms Spread From Midwest to Mid-Atlantic
August 18, 2014; 7:08 AM

This pressure analysis was made using 9 a.m. ET data. The thin west-east black line is the boundary between hot and cool weather. A low pressure area is moving eastward along the boundary zone, causing showers and thunderstorms. The next low pressure area should send some of the rain farther north.
Cool and Dry, Then More Humid
Cool and Dry, Then More Humid
August 15, 2014; 7:40 AM

In the early to middle parts of next week, we expect to see a boundary zone separating hot, humid air to the south from cooler air to the north. A series of ripples or disturbances aloft moving west to east will take turns at enhancing or reducing the chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Another September Preview
Another September Preview
August 14, 2014; 7:05 AM

Looking beyond next week, we see signs of something that has been missing in the Great Lakes and Northeast just about all summer: hot weather. That may change. Here is a computer model prediction of the upper air flow on Sunday, Aug. 24. Note how the flow appears to run from Arizona all the way to north of New England.
Northeast: Rain on the Way
Northeast: Rain on the Way
August 11, 2014; 7:14 AM

The following regional radar map shows that while there are not any large shields of steady rain, there are pockets and bands of rain and thunderstorms that contain heavy precipitation.
Northeast: What a Weekend!
Northeast: What a Weekend!
August 08, 2014; 8:10 AM

More than 7 million acres have burned in western Canadian wild fires this season, The plumes of smoke from these fires have spread far and wide. The sky takes on a whitish cast from the layer of smoke high overhead. This satellite picture shows a fire near Great Slave Lake in northwest Canada
Northeast: What a Weekend!
Northeast: What a Weekend!
August 08, 2014; 8:10 AM

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