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Elliot Abrams

New England to Turn Rainy
New England to Turn Rainy
October 20, 2014; 8:12 AM

This mornng, showers were moving across the lower Great Lakes region. A band of thunderstorms developed near Chicago before 6:30 a.m. CT and reached the southwest Michigan shoreline an hour later (8:30 a.m. ET). The following maps show the shower zone and Chicago area lightning.
Chicago to New York City: Autumn Chill Coming This Weekend
Chicago to New York City: Autumn Chill Coming This Weekend
October 17, 2014; 7:18 AM

The tropics have been more active recently. This map shows various entities that area being tracked and analyzed. Hurricane Gonzalo stands out clearly.
Heavy Rain Moves Toward Eastern New England
Heavy Rain Moves Toward Eastern New England
October 16, 2014; 8:27 AM

A couple of days ago, the storm entering the East had a stronger circulation than it does now. Here is the pressure analysis from earlier this morning. Several minor disturbance can be seen, and trough lines representing those have been sketched on the map. Note that there is little difference in temperature from western Pennsylvania to Wisconsin.
Heavy Rain Band Aims for I-95 Corridor
Heavy Rain Band Aims for I-95 Corridor
October 15, 2014; 10:21 AM

The rain band is only 100-200 miles wide, but it is moving slowly. This map shows its location at 10 a.m. today. Once the main rain band passes, it won't be quite as warm as it was when the rain started. However, by mid-October standard, it will still be mild.
Northeast: Warmer, Then Wetter
Northeast: Warmer, Then Wetter
October 14, 2014; 9:31 AM

On some days, there are so many "little things" that it is difficult to identify the players. Today, we see two systems dominating: the low pressure area on the left (west) and the high pressure area to the right (east). The cold front associated with the low pressure area is helping to support bands of rain.
Severe Weather Threat Illinois to Louisiana; East Coast to Turn Milder
Severe Weather Threat Illinois to Louisiana; East Coast to Turn Milder
October 13, 2014; 7:42 AM

One branch of the flow will go from Oregon and northern California eastward to the Plains, then it will go around the south side of the storm we have been talking about. A second branch of the flow will run from British Columbia northeastward to northern Hudson Bay. Cold air will be north of that current...which means it won't be anywhere near the eastern U.S. later this week.
I-95 Corridor: Rain Friday Night; Dry Most of Weekend
I-95 Corridor: Rain Friday Night; Dry Most of Weekend
October 09, 2014; 7:44 AM

It seems late in the season for tropical storm activity, but remember Sandy came late in October two years ago, causing heavy snow in the West Virginia and western Maryland mountains and disastrous effects from New Jersey to southern New England.
Weekend Looks Bright for the Great Lakes and Northeast
Weekend Looks Bright for the Great Lakes and Northeast
October 08, 2014; 7:10 AM

It is easy to see how people could become very concerned about the first map, while complacency would be the rule after looking at the second map. At this point, we know either solution could be totally wrong and so can both of them! I am using the benign forecast as the thumbnail for this post because I don't want to cause undue concern.
Northeast Corridor: Thunderstorm Threat Late Tonight
Northeast Corridor: Thunderstorm Threat Late Tonight
October 07, 2014; 8:20 AM

Many times we look at the sky and it may be pretty, or gray and gloomy, or whatever. However, a time-lapse movie can really bring the scene to life. This movie, taken on the afternoon of Oct. 1, shows clouds northwest of my house (in the middle of Pennsylvania).
Northeast: Warmup Until Wednesday; Showers Tomorrow Night
Northeast: Warmup Until Wednesday; Showers Tomorrow Night
October 06, 2014; 8:26 AM

During summer, you have to be pretty ambitious to take many sunrise photos... because sunrise is so early. That's not the case now. Often, the best color is seen when the sun is just below the horizon. At that point, it is not yet bright from our gran-based viewpoint, but the undersides of the clouds may be well illuminated. In this picture, alto cumulus clouds are lit up on their forward edges.

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