The Next Warm Break in the Weather Pattern
April 11, 2012; 10:14 AM
Wednesday, 11:45 a.m.
The title of today's post is one with a double meaning. More on the second meaning later. The primary meaning is straightforward. The chill now prevailing from the Dakotas to the southern Appalachians will reach its peak in the next 24 hours. After a cold and frosty morning tomorrow in parts of the Tennessee Valley, the mountains of North Georgia, upstate South Carolina and western North Carolina, sunshine will send temperatures back toward average, with the warming from today to tomorrow more pronounced in the middle Mississippi Valley.
By Friday, the warming spreads across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, and trickles into the East. Then it's 'game on' for the weekend, and it should last through the weekend into the early part of next week, and it will probably mean a decent-sized area of 80-degree warmth showing up for a day or three.
How do we get there??
In short, we're going from this tonight:
to this Sunday evening:
That's the Canadian ensemble forecast for Sunday evening. Notice the very strong upper-level ridge that has completely replaced the deep upper level trough we find now. If you look at the 850 mb temperatures, they go from -5C to -8C over the next 24 hours to +10C to maybe +15C by late Sunday. Do the math, and that translates from temperatures aloft anywhere from the upper teens and low 20s to the 50s. Put another way, surface temperatures will go from those aforementioned frosty levels tomorrow morning to 80 or higher by the end of the weekend.
This warming will be aided by the placement of a surface high along the Carolina coast Saturday morning. As the slides off the coast this weekend, the clockwise flow around it will draw the warmth out of Texas and the western Gulf Coast and send it steadily northeastward.
The real questions will be: how warm will it actually get? How far north will it get warm? How long will it stay? The quick and easy question is: 'it depends.' It depends on where you are, what model you believe or don't believe, the speed of systems, sunshine vs. cloud cover, and dry weather vs. wet weather.
I'm pretty confident that areas along and south of the Mason-Dixon Line on into the Ohio Valley, once they warm at least into the 70s, stay at least in the 70s through the weekend, and probably Monday and Tuesday. Farther north, it becomes a little harder, because all of the above 'issues' come into play.
For one, as the warmer air moves in, there will be some resistance to it, and that will lead to a lot of clouds, showers and some thunderstorms. These are most likely from the central Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes, then eastward across New York on Saturday. By Sunday, this area is likely to be farther north. Part of the reason for that is a fast-moving storm that will cut across the northern Lakes and through Southern Ontario toward eastern Quebec. It will drag a cold front behind it, but ahead of it warmer air will be yanked farther north on Sunday, with the most likely areas to get those showers and thunderstorms near the front, which means portions of upstate New York into northern New England. And that could mean 70-degree warmth to Boston by late Sunday.
That front will come only so far south in the face of that upper level ridge, so I suspect it stays warm everywhere south and west of New York City Monday and Tuesday, if not in the city. If there is any west to southwest flow south of that front and some sunshine, it will be well into the 70s, and maybe 80 in some areas.
The warmth lasts into Tuesday west of the Appalachians ahead of a stronger cold front. That front will get to the Appalachians by Wednesday morning, then off the East Coast later Wednesday. That will bring an end to this nice break in the warmth, but it will be a blast while it lasts.
A side note to this warmth: be prepared for severe weather near any frontal boundaries, especially tied to any upper-level disturbances. Our news team is focusing on that aspect of the weather already, so be sure to check that out.
Finally, the second meaning of the title. As you would imagine, it has to do with my cycling. I took my bike to the Bicycle Shop Monday after riding through winds that gusted to 46 mph. Yeah, I'm nuts, but I'm not alone! The handlebar tape was starting to unravel a bit, my brake pads were getting too worn, it wasn't shifting real well, and there was strange rattling coming from the rear wheel. The latter had been an issue for the better part of a week or maybe two. Because the weather had been sooooo nice, I wasn't going to give up a day of riding to take the trusty steed into the shop for some minor maintenance.
I had a few friends look at it before the ride Friday, and they suggested the rear wheel bearings needed to be replaced. Well, maybe you have guessed where this is going, but when the mechanic put it up on the stand to take a look at it, he quickly diagnosed the real problem. Not a crack in the frame, but a complete break! It was near the bottom of the seat stay where it connects to the chain stay and the rear hub. the two separate pieces that should have been one were tied together well enough that it really wasn't affecting my riding. Heck, last Thursday I did my fastest solo ride ever of any length -- 42 miles at over 20 mph! So it couldn't have been that bad, but it was bad enough that the frame is now being readied for the recycling bin.
Thank goodness 1) I didn't wreck, and 2) it was (again) under warranty! A special thank you to Specialized! They had no idea what they were getting into when they sold that Sequoia (now a Secteur) to me in '07!
I should quit my job here and become a test rider for cycling equipment! Think about it, I could combine my passion for cycling with a great aid to the cycling manufacturing community by taking their products out on the undulating and rough terrain of central Pennsylvania! If there's a manufacturing defect to be found, chances are good I would find it - and fast! Anyone want to hook me up???
The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com