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Western Pacific to Remain Active This Week

October 08, 2013; 12:02 PM

Although the Atlantic Hurricane Season has had trouble building any steam this year, the Western Pacific has been full of life.

The season, which began on Jan. 1, has already had 24 named tropical storms and 10 typhoons, the equivalent to a hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean.

Former Typhoon Fitow made landfall in eastern China on Monday morning, bringing more than a foot of rainfall to the region along with damaging winds at the coast.

Typhoon Danas is currently drenching parts of Japan and South Korea after delivering winds of 120 mph (195 kph) to Yoron Island on Monday.

A large area of unsettled weather from east of the Philippines through Mariana Islands, including Guam, could generate multiple tropical cyclones this week.

Very low wind shear, combined with extremely warm ocean waters, across the region will allow clusters of showers and thunderstorms to become better organized.

The most likely scenario is that an area of low pressure will develop east of the Philippines and strengthen into a tropical system during the next 24 hours.

This tropical system would likely be steered slowly westward leading to impacts across the Philippines. Assuming that a tropical cyclone develops in the next 24 hours, landfall would be projected across Luzon in the northern Philippines later this week. A prolonged period of torrential rainfall could lead to life-threatening flooding across the northern Philippines during this time.

This potential tropical system would then continue on a general westward track with future implications for areas from northern Vietnam through southeast China.

Satellite image from Tuesday showing a broad area of unsettled weather from near the Philippines through the Mariana Islands, courtesy of UW-CMISS.

At the same time, the eastern edge of this unsettled weather could spawn a separate tropical cyclone near Guam late this week. The steering flow in this part of the Western Pacific Ocean will remain light and could lead to several days of nasty weather across the Marianas.

A general track to the north or northwest would be most likely from this potential tropical system which could lead to impacts for Japan next week.

As a result of these potential tropical cyclones, anyone living or visiting areas from the Philippines to China, Taiwan and Japan should closely monitor the situation for possible impacts from tropical cyclones later this week and into next week.

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