Wind Shear Continues in the Tropical Atlantic
June 08, 2012; 1:13 PM
Despite some interesting complexes of thunderstorms, wind shear will continue to mitigate tropical activity into the middle of the month.
A cluster of thunderstorms was filling a substantial part of the Gulf of Mexico during Tuesday, but winds in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere, known as wind shear, are too strong to allow the system to organize.
According to Tropical Weather Expert Dan Kottlowski, "Atmospheric pressure is lower than what we have seen in recent weeks in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean, but there is likely to be too much shear to allow development for at least the next week or so."
Mid- and high-level winds have also increased over the continental United States over the past week as evidenced by the unusually chilly and unsettled conditions in the Northeast and the potent storm system impacting part of the West.
During and beyond the middle of June, the jet stream up north and wind shear in the tropics may ease enough to allow a system to cook up either in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico or the western Caribbean.
"Just because we had a busy, early start to the tropical weather season in the Atlantic, does not mean that the entire season will be active with well-above average numbers for named systems," Kottlowski said.
In the short term, the winds over the Gulf will tend to steer some of the moisture bubbling up toward the Florida Peninsula in the form of locally drenching showers and thunderstorms.