Aug 23, 2019

As of early Friday morning, EDT, Severe Tropical Storm Bailu, known as Ineng in the Philippines, is centered 475 miles to the southeast of Taipei, Taiwan. The storm is moving to the northwest at 15 mph. Highest sustained winds are 55-60 mph, with highest gusts to 80 mph.

Tropical Storm Bailu is forecast to track mainly to the northwest the next 24 hours while strengthening. There is a chance that Bailu could reach the minimum criteria to be classified as a typhoon. The forecast path and strength will mean northern Luzon will get clipped by some rain and gusty winds into early Saturday, but southern Taiwan is more likely to have the more threatening impacts of flooding rain, locally damaging winds and mudslides. This rain and wind will increase across southern Taiwan later Friday night and continue through the day on Saturday with a landfall possible in southern Taiwan as early as Saturday afternoon, local time. If the storm does make landfall in Taiwan, it would then weaken some but is still expected to continue westward as a strong tropical storm making a landfall in eastern China with heavy rain and strong winds on Sunday. If Bailu does not make a landfall in southern Taiwan, it could be at or near the minimum criteria for a typhoon as it approaches eastern China. Bailu will still produce heavy rain on Monday as it continues westward and starts to dissipate.

Elsewhere across the basin, no additional tropical cyclone development is expected the next 24 hours, but the chance of a low pressure area now moving westward toward the Philippine Sea to strengthen into a tropical cyclone will increase Sunday and Monday. There could be impacts across the Philippines Tuesday and Wednesday from this system.

By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Houk