Typical midsummer forecast challenges in the long-range
July 03, 2019; 1:43 PM
Forecast signals remain weak for the rest of July, which gives us less confidence in the long-range pattern and especially precipitation anomalies.
The strongest signal that remains is that much of Alaska will remain abnormally warm and drier than normal for at least the next couple of weeks.
I do not see much indication for sustained heat from the southern Prairies to Ontario through much of Florida, but that, of course, can change, as it is July.
Long-range outlooks for precipitation are especially difficult to predict this time of the year, as most of the rainfall is from convective storms, which means one location can end up with 300 percent of normal rainfall for the month, while another location just 50 km away can end up unusually dry for the month.
Unfortunately, my maps somehow got corrupted today, so I will do my best to describe them....
1. Above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall for much of Alaska and the Yukon Territory over the next few weeks. High fire danger.
2. Turning wetter across the central BC coast.
3. Slightly cooler trends from eastern Alberta through Manitoba and into Ontario during the period, with near-normal rainfall.
4. Near- to above-normal temperatures for Quebec and the Maritimes.
5. Near- to above-normal rainfall around the Great Lakes region mid-July.
Water temperatures remain about 1-2 deg. C. above normal off the BC coast and this should persist through the summer.
Sea-surface temperatures are now near to slightly below normal off of Atlantic Canada, but I think they will gradually trend back above normal in August.
Ocean water temperatures off of Alaska are running about 4 to 5 deg. C. above normal!
Arctic sea ice extent is currently tracking very close to the record low year of 2012, though most ice forecasts do not have this year's forecast minimum extent being lower than 2012.
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